"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
George Santayana, 1905
50 Years of Verified Macro Predictions
Professor Steve Keen, PhD and the Ravel Advisory team build stock-flow consistent debt, energy, and banking models, powered by the patented Ravel© framework, so sovereigns and institutions can see systemic risk before it breaks the system.
Professor Keen modeled the next one in December 2005, 36 months before Lehman. The math behind it is now patent-protected, and not in the IMF's textbook.
Flagged private-debt risk before the 2008 global crisis.
Won the inaugural Revere Prize for that early warning.
Used in real time through the COVID economic cascade.
Selected institutions where Professor Keen has been invited to speak, teach, or contribute research
Ravel© In The Wild
Combined views
Channel views · founder
Tracking the framework
The Diary of a CEO · Steven Bartlett
7M+ views, top of the world's biggest podcast
Professor Keen's first encounter with Steven Bartlett. The conversation that explains the systemic mistakes the IMF and Fed keep repeating, and the Ravel© framework on its biggest stage yet.
BBC HARDtalk · 2016
The early-warning track record that puts Keen in the room with central bank advisors.
Piers Morgan Uncensored
Public-facing version of the framework used by housing and sovereign-risk practitioners.
Bloomberg Television · London
Filmed at Bloomberg's London studio. Inequality + the Gilded Age. Professor Keen applies the framework to the U.S. macro cycle.
Lex Fridman · MIT · #303
3-hour discussion. Cited by quants and policy researchers as the definitive Keen primer.
Al Jazeera English · International
International broadcast appearance. The framework applied at sovereign and energy-policy scale.
European Parliament
MEP-hosted
Sovereign-debt + financial-fragility warning, delivered inside the EU policy machine.
Selected appearances. View counts as of 2026.
The Proof
A documented, peer-reviewed early warning. Three years before Lehman. While the IMF and the Federal Reserve were calling "soft landing." The framework that produced the call is the same one Ravel Advisory engages with sovereigns and institutions today.
Published warnings about runaway private debt, 36 months before Lehman.
Modeled household and corporate debt as a percentage of GDP. Mainstream described the same trajectory as "containable."
Called it on the record, 12 months before Lehman.
The IMF and Fed called "soft landing" through Q3 2007. The model did not.
Awarded the Revere Prize.
For "the most cogent early warning of the global financial crisis." Voted by readers of Real-World Economics Review.
The framework lives inside Ravel©.
The patented stock-flow consistent modelling engine that produced the 2008 call is the same engine sovereigns and institutions plug into through Ravel Advisory.
On The Record
Not a hindsight claim. Time-stamped, peer-visible, and dated 36 months before Lehman. Click either to enlarge.
What we do
Selected Briefings
Macro questions that finance ministries, central bank advisors, and institutional allocators actually need answered. One field for the PDF.
For: Central bank advisors, ministry of finance teams, institutional allocators.
Aggregate private debt as a share of GDP is now higher than 2007. Shows what stock-flow consistent modeling sees ahead of consensus, and how to stress-test your portfolio or balance sheet against it.
For: GCC ministries, sovereign wealth funds, central banks.
Shows how combined debt and energy models change default stress tests for one of the world's most sovereign-stable economies.
For: Industry strategy heads, energy ministries, long-horizon allocators.
Energy throughput, not just labor and capital, sets the upper bound on real production. Shows modeling implications for industry, currency, and central bank policy.
For: Policy units, regulators, sovereign technology partners.
AI-driven productivity shifts are reshaping the assumptions underlying every major macro forecast. Shows where consensus models fail and dynamic stock-flow models hold.
For: Quants, model-risk teams, regulators.
Audit of central bank forecasting methodologies through the lens of accounting identities. Shows where mainstream models silently violate them.
More briefings published quarterly. Subscribe to the research list →
The Founder
Selected institutions where Professor Keen has been invited to speak, teach, or contribute research
Won the inaugural Revere Award (2010) for the most cogent early warning of the global financial crisis.
1,152 votes from 2,500+ economists at Real-World Economics Review. More than twice as many as the next two nominees (Roubini, Baker) combined. Listed by Bezemer (2009) as one of only 12 economists who genuinely foresaw the GFC.
Distinguished Research Fellow, Institute for Strategy, Resilience & Security, University College London.
Honorary Professor at UCL. Former Head of School of Economics, History & Politics at Kingston University London. PhD UNSW. Ranked #19 on Academic Influence's Most Influential Living Economists.
Author of Debunking Economics, Can We Avoid Another Financial Crisis?, and The New Economics: A Manifesto.
The New Economics selected by Martin Wolf as one of the Financial Times Best Books of 2021. Endorsed by Yanis Varoufakis (former Finance Minister of Greece), Kate Raworth, Michael Hudson.
Founder of the patented Ravel© modelling framework. Open-source predecessor (Minsky) funded by INET (the Soros institute).
$128,000 INET grant + $78,025 Kickstarter. SourceForge "Project of the Month" January 2014. Built with Russell Standish, ex-Director of UNSW High-Performance Computing.
Selected institutions where Professor Keen has been invited to speak, teach, or contribute research
Endorsements + Peer Review
Verified public endorsements and peer-reviewed collaborations. No paid testimonials. No placements.
Yanis Varoufakis
Former Finance Minister, Greece
"No one is more qualified than Steve Keen to answer the question 'Can we avoid another financial crisis?'"
Endorsement of Can We Avoid Another Financial Crisis? (Polity, 2017).
Martin Wolf
Chief Economics Commentator, FT
Selected The New Economics as one of the Financial Times "Best Books of 2021: Economics."
The benchmark gatekeeper for serious economic thought.
Kate Raworth
Author, Doughnut Economics
Public endorsement of The New Economics: A Manifesto, alongside ongoing platform collaborations.
Senior Associate, Oxford / Amsterdam. Defining voice in post-growth economics.
Tim Lenton
Founding Director, Global Systems Inst., Exeter
Co-authored PNAS 2022 paper formally refuting consensus climate-damage estimates as irreconcilable with physical science.
World authority on climate tipping points.
Lex Fridman
MIT Research Scientist + Podcaster
"A brilliant economist. Fascinating. I recommend."
Host of Lex Fridman Podcast (#303). Long-form three-hour discussion on debt, energy, and climate risk.
Professor Richard Murphy
Emeritus Prof. of Accounting, Sheffield
"If economics is to have any role in building a future fit for humanity, it needs rebels like Professor Keen."
Director, Tax Justice UK. Co-architect of MMT adoption in UK policy circles.
Ann Pettifor
Director, Policy Research in Macroeconomics
"The most rigorous demolition of orthodox economics. Continues to challenge mainstream economists."
UK government advisor. Predicted the 2008 GFC in The Coming First-World Debt Crisis (2006).
Mike Morgan
COO, Simudyne
"We will infuse his vision and foresight into our strategic execution."
Simudyne (institutional agent-based simulation) brought Professor Keen on as a senior macro advisor.
Bichler & Nitzan
Authors, Capital as Power
"Half a century of research has made Professor Keen one of the world's foremost critics of neoclassical economics."
Shimshon Bichler and Jonathan Nitzan. Published academic review of Professor Keen's body of work.
Real-World Economics Review
Revere Award Citation
"The economist who first and most cogently warned the world of the coming financial collapse."
Official citation, Revere Award (2010), Real-World Economics Review. Voted first, ahead of Roubini and Baker.
Michael Hudson
Dist. Research Professor, UMKC
Public endorsement of The New Economics: A Manifesto, alongside cross-citations on debt and rentier dynamics.
Author, Killing the Host and Super Imperialism.
Howard Reed
Director, Landman Economics
"Debunking Economics is the best takedown ever written."
UK economist whose research shapes Treasury, IFS, and trade-union policy modeling.
Additional cross-disciplinary collaborators on Professor Keen's published work include Tim Garrett (atmospheric physics, Utah), James Rae (geosciences, St Andrews), and Matheus Grasselli (mathematics, McMaster). Krugman vs. Keen debate (2012) on file.
Case Studies · On The Record
These are real reports and models Professor Keen built for groups like the United Nations and CSIRO. Open any one and read the actual work. Nothing here is a summary or a sales sheet.
United Nations Environment Programme · Featured
A United Nations report on how Asia and the Pacific can keep growing without running out of resources. Professor Keen built the money-and-economy model behind it at the University of Western Sydney, joined to CSIRO's physical model. Funded by the Government of Norway.
CSIRO · 2011
CSIRO's write-up of the project. It explains why the old models missed the crisis, and how Professor Keen's model shows real booms and busts.
Open the article → (PDF)UNEP Report · Method
The slides that show how Professor Keen's economy model was joined to CSIRO's physical model for the UN report.
Download the slides ↓ (PPT)The Math · 2009
The engine under the models. A four-part model of a whole economy with debt and money built in, that makes booms and busts on its own.
Open the model paper → (PDF)Ravel© · Presentation
A talk on why mainstream economics gets money wrong, and how the Ravel© tool models money and debt the right way.
Download the talk ↓ (PPTX, 70 MB)The Working Group
Sovereign and institutional engagements draw on a small working group of senior practitioners across modelling, software, and research communication.
Lead Developer, Ravel©
Researcher & Educator
Working group expands per engagement. Specialist contributors (climate scientists, applied mathematicians, energy physicists) brought in for cross-disciplinary mandates as required.
Sovereign & institutional inquiries
We work with a small number of sovereigns, central banks, funds and strategic technology partners each year.
Instant Help
Research desk for institutions
Send the research team a follow-up by email
