Sovereign & Enterprise Advisory
Debt and energy macro modeling for sovereign risk and AI-era policy. Frameworks that called 2008, Saudi Arabia 1999, and the COVID crisis ahead of consensus.
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Called 18 months ahead of IMF + Fed consensus.
Steve's debt-to-GDP framework projected systemic stress 18 months before consensus shifted. Mainstream called "soft landing" through Q3 2007.
Featured Appearances
Featured Interview
Diary of a CEO
Featured Interview
BBC HARDtalk
Featured Interview
Piers Morgan
Featured Interview
Lex Fridman
Featured Interview
Al Jazeera
What we do
Stock-flow consistent debt + energy + banking models. Built from accounting identities, not equilibrium fairy tales. Used by sovereigns, central bank advisors, and institutional asset managers.
View methodology →The modeling tools that power our advisory work. Multidimensional OLAP and dynamic system simulators. Available for in-house teams, white-label, and embedded sovereign use cases.
Explore the tools →Custom modeling, scenario planning, board-level briefings, and crisis advisory for governments, sovereign-adjacent firms, and global enterprises. Engaged where the math has to be right.
Schedule a briefing →Methodology
Mainstream macroeconomics treats money, debt, and energy as side notes. Our framework puts them at the center. The result: dynamic, stock-flow consistent models that capture real economies, not the textbook ones.
Used to call the 2008 financial crisis 18 months ahead of consensus. Used in real time during the COVID economic cascade. Available to sovereigns and enterprises through custom advisory and the Ravel and Minsky software platforms.
Request the methodology white paper →Core principles
Free Research Briefings
Hand-picked briefings on the macro questions sovereigns and enterprises actually need answered. One field, no forms.
Aggregate private debt as a share of GDP is now higher than 2007. Why mainstream models won't see the next crisis any clearer than they saw the last — and what stock-flow consistent modeling shows ahead of consensus.
Stock-flow consistent modeling of energy-currency-fiscal dynamics for one of the world's most sovereign-stable economies. What changes when assumption breaks.
Energy throughput, not just labor and capital, sets the upper bound on real production. Modeling implications for industry, currency, and central bank policy.
AI-driven productivity shifts are reshaping the assumptions underlying every major macro forecast. Where consensus models fail and dynamic stock-flow models hold.
An audit of central bank forecasting methodologies through the lens of accounting identities. Where mainstream models silently violate them.
More briefings published quarterly. Subscribe to the research list →
The team
Founder & Chief Economist
Australian heterodox economist, peer-reviewed across debt-deflation theory, monetary economics, and energy-economy systems. Author of Debunking Economics and The New Economics. Creator of the Ravel and Minsky modeling platforms. Featured by BBC, Diary of a CEO, Piers Morgan, and Al Jazeera.
Chief Technology Officer
Computational scientist and lead developer of the Ravel and Minsky software platforms. Decades of work in dynamic systems simulation, complexity theory, and high-performance scientific computing. Australian-based.
Operating Partner
Operating contact for Ravelation Pty Ltd, the holding entity behind the firm. Coordinates engagements, contracts, and delivery across the modeling, software, and advisory verticals.
Macro Modeling Partner
Founder of Modern Macro, a partnered consultancy applying Ravel and Minsky models to enterprise and policy work. Specializes in custom sovereign and corporate engagements.
Advisory Strategy & Operations
Strategy and operations lead for Ravel Advisory's enterprise and sovereign engagements. Founder of Creatorjoy, the joint-venture partner managing client engagement, brand, and growth.
Working with sovereigns, central bank advisors, asset managers, and policy bodies on custom engagements.
Discuss a project →Selected engagements
Global Enterprise
Macro scenario modeling for global supply-chain and pricing strategy. Energy-input and currency-debt frameworks applied to long-horizon planning.
Sovereign Advisory
Sovereign-tier macro briefings and custom modeling for ministries, central bank advisors, and policy think tanks across Asia-Pacific and Europe.
Crisis Advisory
On-call advisory during the 2020 COVID economic cascade. Stock-flow consistent shock models translated into actionable policy windows.
Engagement details under NDA. Client-named case studies available on request.
Sovereign & enterprise inquiries
Schedule a 30-minute briefing to scope a sovereign or enterprise engagement. We work with finance ministries, central bank advisors, sovereign wealth funds, asset managers, and global enterprises.
